When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
38% hit
(2,911)
40-50% conf.
43% hit
(9,530)
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(29,856)
60-70% conf.
66% hit
(29,677)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(32,358)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(18,900)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(2,158)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
39% hit
(1,477)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(3,538)
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(2,164)
60-70% conf.
65% hit
(1,071)
70-80% conf.
78% hit
(560)
80-90% conf.
87% hit
(174)
90-100% conf.
96% hit
(24)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(7,371)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(1,602)
70-80% conf.
51% hit
(37)
80-90% conf.
100% hit
(2)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
59% hit
(612)
60-70% conf.
70% hit
(1,998)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(3,644)
80-90% conf.
85% hit
(2,254)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(506)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(1,691)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(3,002)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(2,887)
80-90% conf.
86% hit
(1,245)
90-100% conf.
90% hit
(189)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(1,977)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(2,525)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(2,722)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(1,445)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(345)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(3,610)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(2,940)
70-80% conf.
74% hit
(1,567)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(733)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(158)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
37% hit
(1,434)
40-50% conf.
43% hit
(5,992)
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,119)
60-70% conf.
70% hit
(211)
70-80% conf.
82% hit
(61)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(1)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
100% hit
(3)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(207)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(3,579)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(5,002)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(18)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(338)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(2,842)
70-80% conf.
74% hit
(4,400)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(1,233)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(12)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(3,065)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(4,063)
70-80% conf.
72% hit
(1,645)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(35)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
60% hit
(352)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(1,748)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(3,939)
80-90% conf.
86% hit
(2,788)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(187)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(5,099)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(2,977)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(820)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(105)
90-100% conf.
73% hit
(11)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,945)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(2,911)
70-80% conf.
72% hit
(3,124)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(1,026)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(6)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(510)
60-70% conf.
70% hit
(1,580)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(3,373)
80-90% conf.
85% hit
(2,851)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(700)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated