When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
37% hit
(611)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(2,446)
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(14,218)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(20,272)
70-80% conf.
71% hit
(13,722)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(14,032)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(4,097)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
37% hit
(600)
40-50% conf.
45% hit
(1,750)
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,243)
60-70% conf.
62% hit
(690)
70-80% conf.
79% hit
(397)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(206)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(71)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(2,964)
60-70% conf.
62% hit
(1,561)
70-80% conf.
66% hit
(361)
80-90% conf.
52% hit
(60)
90-100% conf.
73% hit
(11)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(529)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(980)
70-80% conf.
78% hit
(1,226)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(1,256)
90-100% conf.
92% hit
(966)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,038)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(1,031)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(1,106)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(1,257)
90-100% conf.
91% hit
(525)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(1,069)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(1,062)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(1,361)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(1,024)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(441)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(1,349)
60-70% conf.
61% hit
(1,384)
70-80% conf.
67% hit
(879)
80-90% conf.
74% hit
(889)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(456)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
73% hit
(11)
40-50% conf.
42% hit
(696)
50-60% conf.
41% hit
(1,317)
60-70% conf.
41% hit
(1,241)
70-80% conf.
42% hit
(997)
80-90% conf.
47% hit
(663)
90-100% conf.
38% hit
(32)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
60-70% conf.
100% hit
(1)
70-80% conf.
74% hit
(534)
80-90% conf.
79% hit
(4,295)
90-100% conf.
79% hit
(127)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
51% hit
(87)
60-70% conf.
69% hit
(4,379)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(414)
90-100% conf.
27% hit
(77)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(370)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(3,326)
70-80% conf.
61% hit
(1,143)
80-90% conf.
71% hit
(24)
90-100% conf.
59% hit
(94)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(388)
60-70% conf.
69% hit
(708)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(1,573)
80-90% conf.
87% hit
(1,828)
90-100% conf.
90% hit
(460)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(2,066)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(1,639)
70-80% conf.
72% hit
(880)
80-90% conf.
79% hit
(314)
90-100% conf.
83% hit
(58)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
51% hit
(1,386)
60-70% conf.
60% hit
(1,378)
70-80% conf.
70% hit
(1,255)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(858)
90-100% conf.
86% hit
(80)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(412)
60-70% conf.
70% hit
(892)
70-80% conf.
78% hit
(1,596)
80-90% conf.
85% hit
(1,358)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(699)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated