When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
38% hit
(1,058)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(3,613)
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(34,616)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(32,438)
70-80% conf.
71% hit
(35,547)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(23,771)
90-100% conf.
84% hit
(8,509)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
38% hit
(1,029)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(2,149)
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(1,306)
60-70% conf.
62% hit
(749)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(430)
80-90% conf.
88% hit
(197)
90-100% conf.
86% hit
(64)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(8,221)
60-70% conf.
57% hit
(2,231)
70-80% conf.
63% hit
(175)
90-100% conf.
75% hit
(4)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
57% hit
(1,160)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(2,395)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(3,814)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(2,480)
90-100% conf.
92% hit
(791)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(2,619)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(3,315)
70-80% conf.
71% hit
(2,947)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(1,444)
90-100% conf.
91% hit
(315)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
57% hit
(2,523)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(2,875)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(2,901)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(1,739)
90-100% conf.
92% hit
(602)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(3,215)
60-70% conf.
58% hit
(3,011)
70-80% conf.
66% hit
(2,499)
80-90% conf.
75% hit
(1,507)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(416)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
31% hit
(29)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(1,464)
50-60% conf.
43% hit
(1,986)
60-70% conf.
43% hit
(965)
70-80% conf.
48% hit
(1,049)
80-90% conf.
47% hit
(392)
90-100% conf.
54% hit
(39)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
60-70% conf.
72% hit
(155)
70-80% conf.
79% hit
(2,106)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(5,145)
90-100% conf.
84% hit
(3,232)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(3,153)
60-70% conf.
59% hit
(3,302)
70-80% conf.
63% hit
(3,468)
80-90% conf.
70% hit
(724)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(1)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
57% hit
(1,265)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(2,301)
70-80% conf.
68% hit
(3,160)
80-90% conf.
68% hit
(2,133)
90-100% conf.
69% hit
(1,789)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
63% hit
(678)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(2,862)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(4,318)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(2,522)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(260)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(6,113)
60-70% conf.
62% hit
(3,571)
70-80% conf.
67% hit
(811)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(125)
90-100% conf.
95% hit
(20)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(1,524)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(2,857)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(4,206)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(2,021)
90-100% conf.
88% hit
(32)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(851)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(1,849)
70-80% conf.
74% hit
(3,663)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(3,333)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(944)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated