When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
38% hit
(2,589)
40-50% conf.
43% hit
(8,972)
50-60% conf.
52% hit
(43,882)
60-70% conf.
60% hit
(39,007)
70-80% conf.
68% hit
(41,532)
80-90% conf.
75% hit
(36,179)
90-100% conf.
78% hit
(26,073)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
38% hit
(2,508)
40-50% conf.
45% hit
(5,269)
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(3,162)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(1,740)
70-80% conf.
70% hit
(949)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(443)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(96)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
51% hit
(5,146)
60-70% conf.
55% hit
(4,225)
70-80% conf.
55% hit
(3,218)
80-90% conf.
59% hit
(1,430)
90-100% conf.
68% hit
(148)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(2,186)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(2,980)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(3,401)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(3,973)
90-100% conf.
91% hit
(1,627)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(3,074)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(3,739)
70-80% conf.
72% hit
(3,714)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(2,728)
90-100% conf.
90% hit
(912)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(3,261)
60-70% conf.
65% hit
(2,993)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(3,932)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(2,621)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(1,360)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(3,826)
60-70% conf.
60% hit
(3,945)
70-80% conf.
66% hit
(2,708)
80-90% conf.
72% hit
(2,658)
90-100% conf.
87% hit
(1,030)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
53% hit
(81)
40-50% conf.
41% hit
(3,703)
50-60% conf.
42% hit
(4,868)
60-70% conf.
44% hit
(2,278)
70-80% conf.
47% hit
(2,142)
80-90% conf.
45% hit
(879)
90-100% conf.
43% hit
(216)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
60-70% conf.
50% hit
(14)
70-80% conf.
69% hit
(422)
80-90% conf.
78% hit
(3,855)
90-100% conf.
81% hit
(9,823)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(6,303)
60-70% conf.
51% hit
(3,563)
70-80% conf.
47% hit
(1,860)
80-90% conf.
34% hit
(1,104)
90-100% conf.
39% hit
(1,337)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
52% hit
(301)
60-70% conf.
54% hit
(915)
70-80% conf.
62% hit
(2,846)
80-90% conf.
64% hit
(3,652)
90-100% conf.
68% hit
(6,401)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(2,294)
60-70% conf.
70% hit
(3,038)
70-80% conf.
78% hit
(3,666)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(3,855)
90-100% conf.
91% hit
(1,314)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(5,472)
60-70% conf.
59% hit
(4,236)
70-80% conf.
65% hit
(3,170)
80-90% conf.
74% hit
(1,101)
90-100% conf.
87% hit
(188)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(2,662)
60-70% conf.
60% hit
(3,097)
70-80% conf.
70% hit
(4,535)
80-90% conf.
77% hit
(3,484)
90-100% conf.
88% hit
(389)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
59% hit
(1,326)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(2,244)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(4,969)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(4,396)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(1,232)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated